Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
